War!

Markets here and around the world can be affected by big geopolitical events. War in the Middle East is certainly one of them. However, it is instructive to note that recent stock market moves were far more influenced by interest rate shifts than the new war. As rates declined from their recent highs, stocks took off.

Bond investors now believe that long-term rates have or are close to peaking. In addition, they believe that the Federal Reserve will keep policy on hold; yet the economy continues to roll along, growing, providing jobs, and proving most nay-sayers wrong!

The U.S. stock market is now approaching what historically has been a strong period: the last calendar quarter and the beginning of the new year. An early look seems to indicate that the pattern once again holds. Stay steady my friends!

The Lonely Bull