October 16, 2025
By Peter Bower
No one should be surprised! Since the beginning of this year, volatility has arisen from time to time, almost out of nowhere. The Bull has written many times to expect more. This time, the catalyst was an apparent escalation of our trade war with China. Will there be follow-through on the threats made? We will see, but we doubt it. There is too much to lose for both parties.
Nevertheless, China is becoming less and less important in the U.S. trade figures. After all, international trade only amounts to 12% of our GDP. China’s portion of that has already fallen by 25%. We are already on a path to reshoring critical materials and processes. Expect more of this.
If you woke up one morning and heard all the headlines, you might expect our stock market to get clobbered. That has not happened. Markets have bounced right back after selling off. Investors are seeing through this volatility. Earnings and interest rates are what really matter. Earnings are growing and interest rates are coming down, all good! Stay steady my friends.
-The Lonely Bull
