November 20, 2025
By Peter Bower
Investors have not been getting economic data since the government shut down. A little is now trickling in, but our economic picture is far from clear. Are we in danger of a recession? There are anecdotal signs of slowing down and distress. Private credit issuers may have made more bad loans than we know, and there are also other signs of credit stress. For example, car loan delinquencies and defaults are up, as well as increased foreclosures of houses.
We have known for some time that our economy is one of haves and have-nots. Has it finally tipped over and become more negative across the board? Hopefully, new data will answer this question. Without it, all manners of fear develop. This may be at the heart of why the stock market has been selling off lately.
The recent governmental shutdown may also be affecting economic measures. These should clear up now that government workers are back to work and getting back pay. In fact, our economy may get a little boost from these payments. It would be a mistake to overreact to any of this. A little time will sort this out. In the meantime, stay steady my friends.
-The Lonely Bull
