Last week the Bull indicated that the U.S. stock market could be setting-up for a breakout to the upside; not yet. Money flows are still quite positive, but a spike in world oil prices as a result of the attack on Saudi Arabia’s facilities, put a temporary damper on expectations for economic growth. Higher oil prices are an additional tax on everyone as the increases tend to get incorporated into prices for a wide swath of goods and services. However, oil prices soon moderated because the Saudi oil outage is predicted to be short-lived.
The Federal Reserve, as expected, lowered the Fed-Funds rate by a ¼%. Investors applauded and expect lower rates to cushion some economic slowing. Growth is now expected to continue, if only at a more moderate rate. Profitability, the key to corporate valuations, should continue to be strong and resume growing.
So, no breakout from the almost two-year trading range, but it may be imminent. Strong money flows, lower interest rates, continuing economic expansion, and a world awash in liquidity bode well for higher stock prices. Stay steady my friends.