April 20, 2023
By Peter Bower
What seems to be a never-ending watch for the next recession continues. The latest forecast is that one should arrive in 18 months. This has been prognosticated since June of 2021. What? This is not a credible forecast. Scaring people with recession talk has been irresponsible. We may have already had our recession.
Recessions come in many forms. A rolling recession that works through the economy sector by sector is what seems to have been occurring since the beginning of last year. Everything does not correct at the same time. Remember that the first two quarters last year showed contraction. It was mostly an inventory correction. Then slowdowns rolled through other sectors.
For some investors, recession talk has only served to keep them on the sidelines, missing many opportunities. Our focus is on individual companies. We typically hold for many years. Recessions come and go. Good companies grow over time. If we feel that businesses are doing what they should, we stay invested in them. Focus on your individual investments and set economic forecasting aside. No one ever gets that right for too long. Stay steady my friends.
The Lonely Bull
