September

September has the distinction of being the one month of the year that has a record of stock market losses; 53% of the time, it is a down month. That leaves 47% of the years when it isn’t. The Bull and his partners do not put much stock in these kinds of statistics. Every year circumstances are different. However, some investors do. Good luck with making investment decisions on such short-term tendencies.

There are several reasons why September has this record. Mutual funds’ fiscal year often ends at the end of this month. Therefore, many book profits or take losses. In either case, it amounts to selling stocks. Since more than a few historic crashes occurred in October, there is also pressure to lighten up. Then, of course, some need to prepare for paying taxes. Corporate and real estate taxes begin to loom large in the fall. No matter what the reasons, it’s a stock market pattern that has persisted.

No one knows what will happen this year. However, the technical backdrop is strong. Money flows are positive, more stocks are participating in the uptrend, and lower interest rates are not far off. These indicators may mean more than a seasonal pattern. Also, one should not disrupt a long-term strategy for this. Stay steady my friends.

-The Lonely Bull