April 22, 2016
By Peter Bower
Good long-term investors never like to have a lot of company.
They usually prefer their own counsel and have found through experience that unanimity of opinions usually indicate danger. When everyone seems to have the same investment view, generally that view has already been priced in and alternatives can come as a surprise. Surprises are what can create big moves. It means that most are wrongly positioned and have to adjust.
Rarely do markets go to extremes to the degree that unanimity of opinion is prevalent. Most times the market wanders between extremes.
However, when one sees an extreme developing, it often provides terrific opportunity for an alternative to emerge. At the moment we see a trend toward a belief that low interest rates will prevail.
As more and more investors adopt that view, the market becomes vulnerable to a surprising up-tick in inflation. That would cause a reevaluation of interest rates and a surprisingly large move higher. That risk is growing.
