Call Us (904) 346-3460
 In The Lonely Bull

Investors love to look for patterns and make predictions based on these observations. Two of the most common this time of year are that the performance of the first week, and the month of the new year, forecast how the rest will transpire. The actual predictability of these is not very good. In fact, as with most of these types of prophecies, the success is not significant and will mostly confuse investors to the most important factors that really influence returns.

We live in a complex world. It is not just the U.S. economy that influences returns here, but also those in the rest of the world. Not to mention that politics, pandemics, wars, and a myriad of other factors also affect what happens. The Bull and his partners have learned that having a base case of expectation is fine, but that it is necessary to adjust and respond as necessary to additional information as it occurs. We are regularly reminded that we must stay humble in our ability to forecast and know.

Thankfully, we have developed a process and procedures for dealing with uncertainty and when and how to make changes. These have evolved over years of experience and continue to be refined. Never stop learning is our mantra. Luck always plays a role. The important thing is to recognize when you have been lucky and capitalize on it. Stay steady, my friends.

The Lonely Bull

Recent Posts