This is the question to which all investors would like an answer. Realizing that predictions are often wrong, there are a few intelligent insights that the Bull and Riverplace Capital can offer.

1 After the first of the year, it is likely that there will be some profit taking among the big winners of last year. Watch out for the “Magnificent Seven*.” This makes sense because investors would want to push capital gains into the following year.

2 Typically, leadership changes in a new year. Only rarely do the same leaders continue to lead, especially when their valuations have already become stretched.

3 Look for a broader market advance including many stocks that were bypassed last year. This makes sense because a recession increasingly looks unlikely. Many stocks were shunned because they might be negatively affected by a downturn.

4 Expect short-term interest rates to retreat as the Federal Reserve cuts rates starting at some point next year.

5 Long-term rates may have already come down more than they should. Remember long-term rates need to reflect inflation, plus a premium for risk and one for tying up money for longer. Current rates seem a little too low given what we foresee for inflation.

6 The Bull and his partners believe inflation will be sticky around 2.5 to 3 percent. This calculation is based upon the facts that globalization is in retreat, governments in the western world need to spend more for defense, and deal with aging populations. These all add to pressures in inflation.

7 Volatility will continue. Expect plenty of it given the very unstable international outlook. This may be the easiest prediction to make.

Take these with plenty grains of salt. The Bull and his partners have been doing this a long time and continue to be surprised. Sometimes a no one could make up what happens. That is part of what makes this endeavor so interesting. Stay humble and adjust as changes become understood. Good luck, stay steady, and have a Happy New Year.

The Lonely Bull

* Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, Nvidia