November 18, 2021

The Ill Wind of Inflation

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By Scott Wohlers

The trouble with inflation is that some people like it. They may not admit it, but who doesn’t like to see their home values go up along with some other assets they might own? Then there is the businessman who has a reason to raise prices to cover rising costs but can add a little more to pad margins and profits. Remember, “it’s an ill wind that doesn’t help someone.”

Everyone sees the headline inflation numbers and the rising costs of some big-ticket items. However, it is increasingly obvious that there is piling-on by many small- and medium-size businesses as well. Everything from shoeshines to car washes and a myriad of other services are costing more and more.

The stock market doesn’t mind inflation either. With margins and profits at all-time records, investors are cheering. It is only when inflation gets totally out of hand that sentiment and confidence collapses. We are not there yet. In the meantime, business is having it going their way. The Bull is not making a case for more inflation, just looking at the reality of its impact on investing.

To be sure, some people are hurt, and some sectors of the economy might be disadvantaged, but right now that is not what is in focus. The market has been setting record highs. Inflation is likely to go higher before it shrinks again. How that comes about is anyone’s guess. The Bull and his partners are looking at the direct consequences and seeking benefits for our investors. Stay steady my friends.

The Lonely Bull

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