When the War Ends

When the Iran war ends, several shifts are likely to take place:

1. The tech and AI infrastructure rally will stall or even recede.

2. The stock market advance will again broaden out.

3. Value stocks, especially cyclicals, will take the lead.

4. Oil and other traditional energy stocks will sell off.

5. Consumer stocks should finally advance.

6. Bond prices will rise, and interest rates will fall.

7. Cryptocurrencies will rise as gold falls.

8. International stock markets will take off.

9. Stock market averages will level off along with the mega-caps.

10. New super large IPO’s, newly issued stocks, will absorb market inflows.

11. What was just working won’t, and what wasn’t will.

Of course, this is an exercise in prognostication. It will be interesting to see how many of these predictions work out. An end to the war may be the biggest prediction of all. We’ll see! There are plausible precedents for all of these. Just in case, we remain balanced in portfolio construction. The Bull and his partners will adjust as necessary. Stay steady my friends.

-The Lonely Bull